IA/PHIL 313. Counterfactual Reasoning:
Examines counterfactual reasoning in national, military, counter-, and competitive intelligence. By analyzing alternate scenarios and their consequences, students will learn the most relevant methods for employing creative thinking in generating, developing, and assessing possibilities; substantiating “after-action” reports, and structuring futures analysis.
Course Objectives:
Students will develop knowledge and skills to
- generate and select the most relevant possibilities for scenario and counterfactual analysis
- develop and direct scenarios strategically and systematically according to the major principles of counterfactual reasoning
- substantiate “after-action” reports by showing what would have occurred if things had been done differently
- structure futures estimates with a rigorous assessment of what would occur in alternate scenarios
- employ innovative thinking through heightened sensitivity to previously unrecognized possibilities
Course Outline:
- Identifying counterfactual questions (both past and future-directed)
- The conceptual foundations of counterfactuals and counterfactual reasoning
- The intelligence-relevant principles of the logical structure of counterfactual inference
- The principles of selecting antecedent scenarios
- The principles of scenario development
- The principles of outcome selection
- Counterfactual fallacies and biases
- Practice in applying the above to a wide range of actual cases (both past and future-directed)
